2006 / August 13^th/ The state of the web: August 2006

I’ve gotta admit it. I am a sucker for wild speculation and ridiculous claims. And right now I’ve got so many ideas a-brewing in my head that I’ve got to let some of it out. This comes after a couple of weeks of working on some of the most awesome projects ever, as well as listening to my creative director ramble on for a while about another awesome project to come.

Web 2.0 is hitting the big spenders

I’m sure that most of you guys that read this article are the early-adopter crowd that thinks Web 2.0 is mainstream. Well, it’s not — but it’s going to be in the coming years. Right now the big corporate presences on the web are realizing the benefits of bringing communities together with newer web technologies. Clients are asking for it and agencies are selling it.

The thing I’m super excited about is the move away from “enterprise” toward “agile.” You see, for the past decade or so, the buzzword around all the big web projects has been enterprise. Companies want modular enterprise solutions that scale to meet their ever-changing business needs. There seems to be a large movement away from this where the big-wigs are demanding smaller applications with less features and more direct benefit to the user. The emphasis has turned from the database application to the user’s experience. This is absolutely huge.

Web 2.0 isn’t such a sham after all

It seems like we’re starting to see the divide between the web 2.0 companies that have made it and those who haven’t. It looks like there’s definitely a bit more than just marketing to this whole community-based buzzword.

On the other hand, we’re going to see companies like Odeo fall and crash hard as they realize that building a business off Venture Capital without revenue wasn’t the smartest idea in the world. Did you really think that was going to work? I didn’t think so.

The companies that learn to monazite their user base will be the new kings of the internet. Companies like Newsvine & Automattic will surge ahead in the world and hit the mainstream faster than they ever thought possible. It turns out the same formula that’s worked for ages still works today: come up with an idea, execute on it, get people to use it, and monatize it.

There’s no bubble brewing, but the companies with 20 million users and no profit will fail as expected.

A new breed of developer is being born

I don’t really know what to call this position, but if I had to take a stab, I’d call it the experience engineer. These are the folks that are at least a big design savvy, but still have a firm grip on the primordial ooze the web is built of: HTML, CSS, and Javascript. They’ve got some design chops that lets them knock-out an awesome interface, and the technical skill required to make it a reality.

If you’re a javascript savvy designer: now is the time to delve into Javascript. In a year or two, my bets are these are going to be some of the most wanted positions in the US. It’s a position that isn’t being taught in schools and breeds fantastically passionate people. Agencies everywhere will gobble them up.

Mainstream media will still be…. mainstream media

Don’t believe the lies about the “long-tail” and it’s plan to take over NBC next month. No matter how hard people try, personal publishing will never overcome big media. To think so is to live in a world of flying cars and colonies on the moon.

I’m stoked

I can’t express how excited I am to be a part of this new internet thing that everyone’s talking about. Keep your eyes open, because this is the best time to be a web developer in a long time.

1. 

   Joel

   August 13^th | #

   Whilst I agree with you about “web 2.0″ - that it is part hype where people don’t plan properly, and part supurb business where they do (utilising the fact that the web is essentially “borderless” - minus the Great Firewall’s of some nations - to bring together people that never before could) - I implore you to not use the word “engineer” so lightly.

   Engineering is a profession that requires a large educational and practical background to achieve success. The word has been much diluted through incorrect use and as a result the picture of engineers in the public’s eyes is much distorted. Just a note from someone who’s studied energy systems engineering - referring to an “experience engineer” diminishes the word engineer as a profession where specialist tertiary education is a key requirement.

2. 

   Kyle

   August 13^th | #

   Joel, I’m not sure if you’re aware - but I’m currently one year away from a B.S. in Civil Engineering. I would be the last person to dillute the word. In terms of it’s meaning, I’ve always taken Engineer to be someone who takes theoretical knowledge and applies to better the world we live in. Which, to me… in some ways, is what the web is all about :) So, yeah. I’ll call it Experience Engineer right now ;)

3. 

   Joel

   August 14^th | #

   I guess my problem exists that if you were to defend, say, the experience without being a Lawyer by profession would you be, or have the right to call yourself, an Experience Lawyer? Or if you were to look at the business side of things, and not be an accountant or have a formal education in the area, but run the numbers would you have the right to call yourself an Accountant (Chartered, Practicing or otherwise).

   I guess I take issues with the use of the word Engineer. You seem to see it as purely the methodoly rather than the profession, the training and the achievement of attaining the education.

   In Australia there’s a big push by the Institute of Engineers, the formal national body for engineers, to ensure that the use of the word “Engineer” is not abused, that those utilising it have the relevant qualifications. To maintain the brand so to speak. The formal qualifications are to have achieved a Bachelor of Engineering from a registered university in a registered course. There is a requirement of honours, so the course is a minimum of four years. Likewise internationally there is normally a requirement for one to have an engineering degree to undertake some aspects of engineering work.

   PS: there’s no pure BE program in the states?

4. 

   Ron

   August 14^th | #

   I couldn’t agree with you more Kyle. Accept I think the Flash/Flex developers will still play a major role in Web 2.0, and I already see the trend of agencies searching for the breed you speak of.

5. 

   Robert

   August 14^th | #

   I couldn’t agree more with the need to move away from “enterprise” solutions and the benifits that come from such a movement. We need to start seeing buisnesses running on systems that don’t look and feel like they were built in the 90’s.

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